Development Analysis of Chili Imports in East Java

East Java Province is one of the leading national chili producers. But, still imports chilies to meet fluctuating demand and prices. The variables imports, production, consumption, pricing, currency rates were employed in this study ranged from 2019 2021. This aims forecast volume for next year (12 months) analyze factors that influence determine most dominant influencing factors. method used (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) ARIMA model multiple linear regression analysis. results show: development prediction with (1,1,1) shows have a downward trend, simultaneously are influenced by price, exchange rate, consumption as factor. It hoped government will regulate imposing import quotas controlling prices